Fun With Medicare Math

Q. What happens when the smartest guy in Oklahoma moves to Texas?
A. The average IQ of both states drops.

I was reminded of that old joke when I was reading about some of the proposed ways to cut the cost of Medicare. One of the policy changes discussed as part of the deal to raise the federal debt ceiling was increasing the eligibility age for Medicare from 65 to 67. Sarah Kliff, in a Washington Post blog, warns of a possible negative consequence:

"A recent Kaiser Family Foundation report found that premiums in the [states' health insurance] exchanges would rise about 3 percent if all eligible 65- and 66-year-olds enrolled. Medicare would see a similar premium increase, with its youngest, healthier subscribers leaving the program."

That is, if Medicare drops them and the insurance exchanges are forced to enroll them, this addition of older (and therefore, on average, sicker) Americans will cause exchange premiums to go up. And if Medicare loses these very same 65- and 66-year-olds (who are, on average, healthier than the even older Medicare enrollees who would be left in that program), then Medicare's premiums will go up, too. Sounds like a lose-lose situation, right?

After the jump, how to turn it into win-win.

Grades: Washington, D+. Richardson, AAA

Congress finally raised the debt ceiling. Whew! I know, it's crazy when the question whether the government will pay its bills is considered iffy, but for a while there it was in doubt. Refusing to raise the debt ceiling is like a homeowner worrying that maybe he bought more house than he can afford and deciding to "solve" his problem by stopping payment on the mortgage. The tea party caucus in Congress urged the country to become a deadbeat and pretend it's being fiscally responsible. Luckily, saner heads prevailed. (Unfortunately, what the "saner" heads came up with is not going to help the unemployment numbers, but that's another story.)

After the jump, the impact on Richardson.

Repeat Tweets: Debt Ceiling and Light Bulbs

Repeat tweets from July, 2011:

• 2011 07 01 - Navy Pier. Michigan Ave at the Chicago River. Cars, pedestrians. Outdoor cafes. Chicago at midnight - crowded, active, alive.
  
• 2011 07 05 - From the city with the Chicago Bears to a lake in northern Wisconsin with the real thing. Haven't seen bears here in 50 years. Exciting.
  
• 2011 07 11 - Instead of raising railings, why don't Rangers build a ledge (of netting, chain-link fencing, whatever) out from upper decks?
  
• 2011 07 13 - It's sadly ironic that Texas conservatives are suddenly pro-choice ... about light bulbs, not a woman's right to control her own body.
  
• 2011 07 14 - Headline: "Atheist group sues to block Perry from prayer rally." Atheists&lawyers ganging up on Perry? Are they secretly trying to help him?
  
• 2011 07 14 - Compact fluorescents are the new motorcycle helmets. Despite being good for you, some foolishly reject them just because they're the law.
  
• 2011 07 14 - The Greater Journey, by David McCullough: Go East, not West. American writers & artists in Paris in the 1800s. Clever concept that works. B-
  

After the jump, more repeat tweets.

Midsummer in the Steger Garden (2011)

From Flowers

Dallas/Ft Worth's second longest streak of consecutive days over 100°F:

July 2 101°F July 3 101°F July 4 100°F July 5 102°F July 6 102°F July 7 102°F July 8 105°F July 9 101°F July 10 100°F July 11 100°F

July 12 100°F July 13 103°F July 14 103°F July 15 105°F July 16 101°F July 17 101°F July 18 101°F July 19 101°F July 20 100°F July 21 102°F

July 22 101°F July 23 101°F July 24 104°F July 25 106°F July 26 102°F July 27 104°F July 28 101°F July 29 101°F July 30 100°F July 31 103°F

We can tie the all-time record streak (42 consecutive days in 1980) in just twelve more days. No, I don't think that's anything to cheer about.

Local Tea Party and the Federal Debt

The tea party is having an out-sized influence on the debt ceiling crisis in Washington. It's threatening to run challengers in GOP primaries next year for any Congressman who dares defy the tea party's hard line stance against raising the debt limit. The tea party threat appears to have worked (at least temporarily), as Speaker John Boehner was embarrassed by having his GOP caucus refuse to get their "ass[es] in line" behind him and vote for his plan to raise the debt ceiling. He was forced to make it even more conservative, and thus even less likely to become law, in order to get his own caucus to back it.

It's hard to over-emphasize the significance of the tea party victory over John Boehner in Washington. How influential is the tea party here in north Texas? What's it even up to? After the jump, some anecdotal answers.

Water, Water, Nowhere

It's hot. Really hot. And dry. Really dry. The last nine months are the driest in Texas history. And that includes the infamous 1950s drought and the 1930s Dust Bowl drought. On Wednesday, Dallas suffered through its 26th consecutive day of 100 degrees or higher, the third longest such streak in history. We can tie the second longest streak, 29 days, on Saturday. With all of August still ahead of us, the all-time record of 42 consecutive days, set in 1980, is not out of the question.

After the jump, a roundup of the mounting disaster.

Debt Ceiling Crisis Reaches Richardson

Last week, in reporting on Richardson's budget retreat, I warned:

"The city proudly points to its Aaa/AAA credit ratings by Moody's and S&P as a factor in keeping its debt service costs low. A dark note that was not considered during the budget retreat: Moody's says it will downgrade at least 7,000 top-rated municipal credit ratings if the U.S. loses its own AAA grade. What would be the consequences to Richardson in that case? I didn't get the impression that Richardson has contingency plans. Let's hope Washington comes to its senses and raises the federal debt ceiling before the federal government defaults."

Well, today, the Congress seems just as belligerent as ever about reaching a compromise over raising the debt ceiling. And today, we moved one step closer to that downgrade of Richardson's own debt. After the jump, the details.

Resistance to Brick Row Cracks

The Richardson City Council voted 5-2 on Monday to approve zoning changes requested by the Brick Row developer that would allow units planned as condos to be built as apartments instead. Ian McCann has the story in The Dallas Morning News.

Last October, a different council voted down a similar request 6-0. Only Steve Mitchell and Amir Omar cast "no" votes both last October and this week. Bob Townsend switched his no vote to yes. Mark Solomon, who was absent at last October's vote, voted yes this time. Gary Slagel, John Murphy and Bob Macy, who all voted no in October, are gone from the council. Their replacements voted yes this time.

New council, different result. Is this another case of the old rule that elections have consequences? Probably not. After the jump, why.

The DMN's Rick Perry Problem

Mike Hashimoto, the most conservative member of The Dallas Morning News's editorial board (at least since Rod Dreher left and arguably before), has been beating the drum for the last six weeks to get the rest of the board to encourage Rick Perry to run for President. Only Hashimoto is too cool to admit to driving the Rick Perry bandwagon. Instead, he says:

"My position, in vast oversimplification, is that while I'm not certain he would be the best GOP nominee, the race sure could use what he has to offer."

Whatever. After the jump, how is Hashimoto's drive going?

How Good Is Your Local School?

How good is your local school? Don't expect to find out from the Texas Education Agency's (TEA) accountability ratings, due out this week. You know, the ratings that say your kids' school is "Exemplary" or "Recognized" or "Acceptable." Why not? Thomas Ratliff, a member of the Texas State Board of Education (SBOE), explains why ... after the jump.