They say, when you're explaining, you're losing. Here I'm going to be explaining what I learned today about why Democrats are losing. That should tell you something about how stupid I am. But here goes anyway.
In an article in The Atlantic, George Packer makes two comments about the state of politics in swing state Arizona. Combined, I think they capture why Democrats have so much trouble reaching large parts of the electorate and Republicans don't. Here's the first:
In 2016, Greene Placentia knew that Trump would win, because she worked every day with the targets of his appeal. "As rich as that fucker is, he stood up there and said, 'You know what? It's not your fault; it's their fault. They don't care about you—I care about you. I will fight for you. They're busy fighting to get guys in dresses.' "Greene Placentia explained it this way: The white working class is sinking, while minority groups, with the support of Democrats, are rising—not as high, but getting closer. "When you’re falling and the party that built its back on you isn't there, and you look over and they're busy with everybody else and the environment and all this shit, and your life is falling apart, and all you see is them rising, it breeds resentment."
Source: George Packer.
It turns out that Republicans aren't fighting to keep guys out of dresses, to put it crudely. Rather, it's that they're telling people that it's Democrats who are "busy fighting to get guys in dresses" and "all this shit." Republicans know how to stoke the politics of resentment. And Democrats keep falling into Republican traps. That's why they are losing.
Packer also explains the Republican strategy this way. Probably the most serious issue facing Arizona this year, every year, is water. There's not enough of it. Who gets what there is? How can we get more? You'd think water would dominate state and local politics. Yet...
When Kari Lake ran for governor in 2022, everyone knew her position on transgenderism and no one knew her position on water, because she barely had one. The subject didn't turn out voters or decide elections; it was too boring and complicated to excite extremists.Source: George Packer.
Kari Lake was campaigning with the same playbook as Trump. She was accusing Democrats of fighting to get guys in dresses. Her attacks on trans people was a strategy to get Democrats to defend trans people. That let her claim that Democrats are "busy fighting to get guys in dresses." You know the rest. But something happened that wasn't in the playbook. Kari Lake lost. Dare I hope that Arizona Dems learned something about how to campaign against the playbook?
"Swing state’s shifting sands,
Distraction becomes the game,
Don't fall for the trap."
—h/t ChatGPT
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