TIL: Hispanics are a Plurality in Texas

Few observers of the state’s demographics were shocked when, in 2022, Census Bureau estimates revealed that Hispanics had become a narrow plurality in Texas. At 40.2 percent of the state’s population, they just edged out the non-Hispanic white population of 39.4 percent. The state will never be the same!

Source: Texas Monthly.

That's what I learned in a Texas Monthly article by Richard Z. Santos. He adds the million dollar question: "Texas Is Now a Majority-Minority State. Why Haven’t Our Politics Changed?" He never satisfactorily answers that question. After the jump, the litany of reasons that each contribute to an answer.

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Santos notes that as California and New Mexico grew more Hispanic, they became reliably Democratic states. He notes that as Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia grew more Hispanic, they have gone from reliably red to new battleground states. What's holding back Texas? Santos gives many reasons: the influence of gerrymandering on the democratic process, the influence of money on politics from big conservative donors, "the complicated matter of some Latinos moving to the right." Then Santos adds another explanation that's unique to Texas.

I think our Texas-size sense of state pride is at the heart of it all. Texas identity, as it has been passed down to generations of schoolchildren, is rooted in a pantheon of mythic freedom fighters, rugged individuals, and devout families. These legends were created by Anglos in the nineteenth century and, with few exceptions, gloss over the many people of color who were trampled along the way. The next chapter of Texas history, by contrast, will be dominated by the rise of Hispanic, Black, and Asian Texans, rendering the history of Anglo dominance a historical moment that is receding in the rearview mirror. And that scares the hell out of some people.

Source: Texas Monthly.

So which will it be? Will the scared-as-hell whites manage to hold onto power by ever more transparent gerrymandering, vote suppression, and rigging the rules to require larger majorities to pass reforms? Or will the demographic trend towards an outright majority by Hispanics eventually turn Texas blue anyway? And if so, how long will it take? Stay tuned.

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"Hispanic tide swells,
Demographic shift in play,
Shaping the Lone Star."
—h/t ChatGPT